Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on November 14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 45¢ · $53 held · ends Nov 14

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$53.12

Combined PnL

$11.81

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$33.79

Total Shares36

Combined PnL+$0.39

Yes6 traders

Total Value$19.34

Total Shares63

Combined PnL+$11.42

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89¢	$23.09	$24.15	+$1.06	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.6¢	$3.81	$14.83	+$11.02	40% 650-980 (1630)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$7.81	$7.29	-$0.52	37% 1527-2596 (4123)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 97¢	$2.5	$2.35	-$0.15	99% 1281-15 (1296)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.5¢	$0.98	$2.1	+$1.12	51% 769-727 (1496)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$1.66	$1.64	-$0.02	49% 753-797 (1550)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.1¢	$0.98	$0.45	-$0.52	51% 804-766 (1570)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.2	$0.18	-$0.02	51% 719-703 (1422)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.1¢	$0.29	$0.14	-$0.16	49% 785-823 (1608)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$23.09

Value

$24.15

PnL

+$1.06

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.81

Value

$14.83

PnL

+$11.02

Record

40%

650-980 (1630)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$7.81

Value

$7.29

PnL

-$0.52

Record

37%

1527-2596 (4123)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.15

Record

99%

1281-15 (1296)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$1.12

Record

51%

769-727 (1496)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.66

Value

$1.64

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

753-797 (1550)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$0.52

Record

51%

804-766 (1570)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.16

Record

49%

785-823 (1608)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.6%

45.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.