Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on November 14?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 51¢ · $122 held · ends Nov 14

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$122.22

Combined PnL

$4.4

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 50.5¢

-22% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$115.05

Total Shares156

Combined PnL+$11.17

Yes3 traders

Total Value$6.89

Total Shares27

Combined PnL-$6.77

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Noavg 72.2¢	$71.11	$79.76	+$8.65	55% 1212-992 (2204)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$22.15	$8.68	-$0.38	40% 650-980 (1630)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 80¢	$6.4	$6.4	+$0	37% 1527-2596 (4123)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79¢	$6.93	$6.25	+$1.47	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 37¢	$3.52	$3.74	+$0.22	51% 804-766 (1570)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$7.4	$3.29	-$4.11	59% 724-513 (1237)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 37¢	$2.28	$2.59	+$0.31	51% 719-703 (1422)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$3.4	$2.58	-$0.82	49% 753-797 (1550)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 37¢	$2.26	$2.57	+$0.31	46% 1095-1300 (2395)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 37¢	$2.24	$2.55	+$0.3	63% 736-439 (1175)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 37¢	$2.23	$2.53	+$0.3	58% 703-515 (1218)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$2.86	$1.02	-$1.84	51% 769-727 (1496)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Invested

$71.11

Value

$79.76

PnL

+$8.65

Record

55%

1212-992 (2204)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$22.15

Value

$8.68

PnL

-$0.38

Record

40%

650-980 (1630)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$6.4

Value

$6.4

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1527-2596 (4123)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.93

Value

$6.25

PnL

+$1.47

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.52

Value

$3.74

PnL

+$0.22

Record

51%

804-766 (1570)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.4

Value

$3.29

PnL

-$4.11

Record

59%

724-513 (1237)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$2.28

Value

$2.59

PnL

+$0.31

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$2.58

PnL

-$0.82

Record

49%

753-797 (1550)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.57

PnL

+$0.31

Record

46%

1095-1300 (2395)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.24

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.3

Record

63%

736-439 (1175)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.23

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.3

Record

58%

703-515 (1218)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.86

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$1.84

Record

51%

769-727 (1496)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.