Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on November 14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $72 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$71.83

Combined PnL

-$12.55

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$37.04

Total Shares188

Combined PnL-$16.75

No3 traders

Total Value$34.78

Total Shares57

Combined PnL+$4.2

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 28.2¢	$46.98	$30	-$16.98	55% 1212-992 (2204)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$18.2	$19.43	+$1.22	40% 650-980 (1630)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 56.1¢	$20.02	$10.47	+$1.64	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 44.2¢	$3.54	$4.88	+$1.34	37% 1527-2596 (4123)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 39.2¢	$2.5	$2.49	-$0.01	49% 753-797 (1550)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.9¢	$0.97	$1.99	+$1.03	46% 1095-1300 (2395)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 41.1¢	$2.69	$1.18	-$1.51	72% 853-335 (1188)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$0.36	$0.78	+$0.42	63% 736-439 (1175)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$0.29	$0.6	+$0.31	58% 703-515 (1218)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.98

Value

$30

PnL

-$16.98

Record

55%

1212-992 (2204)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$18.2

Value

$19.43

PnL

+$1.22

Record

40%

650-980 (1630)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$20.02

Value

$10.47

PnL

+$1.64

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$3.54

Value

$4.88

PnL

+$1.34

Record

37%

1527-2596 (4123)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

753-797 (1550)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.97

Value

$1.99

PnL

+$1.03

Record

46%

1095-1300 (2395)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.69

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$1.51

Record

72%

853-335 (1188)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.78

PnL

+$0.42

Record

63%

736-439 (1175)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$0.31

Record

58%

703-515 (1218)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.