Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $189 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$189.37
$0.6
99.3¢ → 98.9¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $68.75 | $68.87 | +$0.13 | 29% 2584-6181 (8765) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $40.7 | $40.83 | +$0.13 | 36% 3058-5353 (8411) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $29.82 | $29.87 | +$0.05 | 19% 65-276 (341) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $29.87 | +$0.17 | 29% 858-2135 (2993) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $19.8 | $19.92 | +$0.12 | 50% 4571-4481 (9052) |
Invested
$68.75
Value
$68.87
PnL
+$0.13
Record
29%
2584-6181 (8765)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$40.7
Value
$40.83
PnL
+$0.13
Record
36%
3058-5353 (8411)
Invested
$29.82
Value
$29.87
PnL
+$0.05
Record
19%
65-276 (341)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$29.87
PnL
+$0.17
Record
29%
858-2135 (2993)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.8
Value
$19.92
PnL
+$0.12
Record
50%
4571-4481 (9052)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.