Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on November 12?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 91¢ · $316 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$315.7
$36.05
80.9¢ → 90.8¢
+12% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 71.3¢ | $130.72 | $173.14 | +$42.42 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 94.2¢ | $65.14 | $65.36 | +$0.21 | 29% 2584-6181 (8765) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 90.8¢ | $27.24 | $28.35 | +$1.11 | 25% 836-2480 (3316) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 92.1¢ | $27.64 | $28.35 | +$0.71 | 9% 38-370 (408) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 94.5¢ | $12.71 | $12.71 | +$0 | 50% 4571-4481 (9052) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 82.2¢ | $4.11 | $4.72 | +$0.61 | 36% 3058-5353 (8411) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $12.23 | $3.07 | -$9.02 | 54% 358-310 (668) |
Invested
$130.72
Value
$173.14
PnL
+$42.42
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$65.14
Value
$65.36
PnL
+$0.21
Record
29%
2584-6181 (8765)
Invested
$27.24
Value
$28.35
PnL
+$1.11
Record
25%
836-2480 (3316)
Invested
$27.64
Value
$28.35
PnL
+$0.71
Record
9%
38-370 (408)
balthazar<$100Invested
$12.71
Value
$12.71
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
4571-4481 (9052)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.11
Value
$4.72
PnL
+$0.61
Record
36%
3058-5353 (8411)
Invested
$12.23
Value
$3.07
PnL
-$9.02
Record
54%
358-310 (668)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.