Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (58%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on November 12?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (13%) · Yes at 42¢ · $415 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 13%
$414.91
$12.93
Research grade
NeutralYes at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors No 58%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 42¢ | $222.69 | $228.07 | +$5.38 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $44.8 | $45.6 | +$0.8 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 52.6¢ | $36.38 | $39.42 | +$3.04 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $32.4 | $34.2 | +$1.8 | 27% 917-2511 (3428) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 55.5¢ | $22.77 | $23.37 | +$0.6 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $18.26 | $19.28 | +$1.02 | 50% 4583-4495 (9078) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 55.8¢ | $13.84 | $14.13 | +$0.29 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $10.84 | $10.84 | +$0 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
Invested
$222.69
Value
$228.07
PnL
+$5.38
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$44.8
Value
$45.6
PnL
+$0.8
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Invested
$36.38
Value
$39.42
PnL
+$3.04
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$32.4
Value
$34.2
PnL
+$1.8
Record
27%
917-2511 (3428)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$22.77
Value
$23.37
PnL
+$0.6
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
balthazar<$100Invested
$18.26
Value
$19.28
PnL
+$1.02
Record
50%
4583-4495 (9078)
Invested
$13.84
Value
$14.13
PnL
+$0.29
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
Invested
$10.84
Value
$10.84
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.