Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on November 12?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 60¢ · $384 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$384
$69.42
59.3¢ → 60.4¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 25.5¢ | $99.68 | $152.9 | +$53.22 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
HE hello.67CTR | Yesavg 34¢ | $90.38 | $103.01 | +$12.63 | 68% 2062-949 (3011) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 57.8¢ | $39.97 | $42.15 | +$2.18 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 57.7¢ | $23.64 | $24.99 | +$1.35 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 57.8¢ | $17.34 | $18.29 | +$0.95 | 25% 845-2482 (3327) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 56.8¢ | $17.04 | $18.29 | +$1.25 | 27% 921-2513 (3434) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 56.8¢ | $11.36 | $12.19 | +$0.83 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 81.9¢ | $12.28 | $9.14 | -$3.14 | 54% 445-377 (822) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 57.8¢ | $2.89 | $3.05 | +$0.16 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
Invested
$99.68
Value
$152.9
PnL
+$53.22
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$90.38
Value
$103.01
PnL
+$12.63
Record
68%
2062-949 (3011)
Invested
$39.97
Value
$42.15
PnL
+$2.18
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$23.64
Value
$24.99
PnL
+$1.35
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$17.34
Value
$18.29
PnL
+$0.95
Record
25%
845-2482 (3327)
Invested
$17.04
Value
$18.29
PnL
+$1.25
Record
27%
921-2513 (3434)
balthazar<$100Invested
$11.36
Value
$12.19
PnL
+$0.83
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$12.28
Value
$9.14
PnL
-$3.14
Record
54%
445-377 (822)
Invested
$2.89
Value
$3.05
PnL
+$0.16
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.