Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on November 12?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 93¢ · $185 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$185.48
-$7.6
96.7¢ → 92.6¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $67.09 | $63.97 | -$3.11 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $39.82 | $37.93 | -$1.9 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $29.1 | $27.75 | -$1.35 | 27% 917-2511 (3428) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $28.94 | $27.75 | -$1.19 | 19% 58-241 (299) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $21.8 | $21.26 | -$0.54 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.8¢ | $4.48 | $4.48 | +$0 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.2¢ | $1.86 | $2.35 | +$0.49 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
Invested
$67.09
Value
$63.97
PnL
-$3.11
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$39.82
Value
$37.93
PnL
-$1.9
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$29.1
Value
$27.75
PnL
-$1.35
Record
27%
917-2511 (3428)
Invested
$28.94
Value
$27.75
PnL
-$1.19
Record
19%
58-241 (299)
Invested
$21.8
Value
$21.26
PnL
-$0.54
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
Invested
$4.48
Value
$4.48
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$1.86
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$0.49
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.