Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $102 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$101.77
$0.07
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KupaKeepKlan<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $85.87 | $85.92 | +$0.04 | 100% 45-0 (45) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.08 | $5.08 | +$0 | 47% 353-400 (753) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 41% 688-988 (1676) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $2.5 | $2.52 | +$0.02 | 99% 268-2 (270) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 | 43% 383-513 (896) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $1.25 | $1.25 | +$0 | 79% 375-99 (474) |
KupaKeepKlan<$100Invested
$85.87
Value
$85.92
PnL
+$0.04
Record
100%
45-0 (45)
Invested
$5.08
Value
$5.08
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
353-400 (753)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
688-988 (1676)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.52
PnL
+$0.02
Record
99%
268-2 (270)
Invested
$2
Value
$2
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
383-513 (896)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$1.25
PnL
+$0
Record
79%
375-99 (474)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.