Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on November 11?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $181 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$180.52
$8.43
92.6¢ → 99.9¢
+8% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 91.7¢ | $92.95 | $96.14 | +$3.19 | 31% 285-621 (906) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $41 | $44.52 | +$3.52 | 68% 2063-953 (3016) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91.8¢ | $19.41 | $21.13 | +$1.71 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $12.49 | $12.49 | -$0 | 99% 268-2 (270) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $4.97 | $5 | +$0.03 | 48% 337-362 (699) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $1.25 | $1.25 | +$0 | 79% 375-99 (474) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $0.03 | $0.01 | -$0.02 | 45% 374-466 (840) |
Invested
$92.95
Value
$96.14
PnL
+$3.19
Record
31%
285-621 (906)
Invested
$41
Value
$44.52
PnL
+$3.52
Record
68%
2063-953 (3016)
Invested
$19.41
Value
$21.13
PnL
+$1.71
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$12.49
Value
$12.49
PnL
-$0
Record
99%
268-2 (270)
Invested
$4.97
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.03
Record
48%
337-362 (699)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$1.25
PnL
+$0
Record
79%
375-99 (474)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.02
Record
45%
374-466 (840)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.