Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on November 11?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 90¢ · $308 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$308.21
$61.18
67.9¢ → 90¢
+33% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 66.3¢ | $169.12 | $212.05 | +$42.93 | 31% 276-616 (892) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $55.66 | $75.54 | +$19.88 | 68% 2062-951 (3013) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 60.7¢ | $13.18 | $10.12 | +$0.85 | 54% 539-462 (1001) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $4.84 | $4.84 | +$0 | 48% 329-355 (684) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $4.5 | $4.75 | +$0.25 | 44% 363-461 (824) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $3.64 | $0.91 | -$2.73 | 80% 550-134 (684) |
Invested
$169.12
Value
$212.05
PnL
+$42.93
Record
31%
276-616 (892)
Invested
$55.66
Value
$75.54
PnL
+$19.88
Record
68%
2062-951 (3013)
Invested
$13.18
Value
$10.12
PnL
+$0.85
Record
54%
539-462 (1001)
Invested
$4.84
Value
$4.84
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
329-355 (684)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$4.75
PnL
+$0.25
Record
44%
363-461 (824)
Invested
$3.64
Value
$0.91
PnL
-$2.73
Record
80%
550-134 (684)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.