Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on November 11?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 83¢ · $146 held · ends Nov 11

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$145.82

Combined PnL

$1.13

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$39.2

Total Shares140

Combined PnL-$12.6

No6 traders

Total Value$106.62

Total Shares111

Combined PnL+$13.73

Yes — 14%No — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$51.8	$39.2	-$12.6	61% 1144-746 (1890)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 54.2¢	$30.51	$39.05	+$8.54	31% 285-621 (906)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 70.5¢	$32.53	$34.88	+$2.35	80% 558-142 (700)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 69.5¢	$17.4	$13.38	+$0.81	54% 553-471 (1024)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 79¢	$7.98	$8.79	+$0.81	43% 383-513 (896)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$5.86	$6.18	+$0.32	41% 688-988 (1676)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 69¢	$3.45	$4.35	+$0.9	48% 337-362 (699)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.8

Value

$39.2

PnL

-$12.6

Record

61%

1144-746 (1890)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$30.51

Value

$39.05

PnL

+$8.54

Record

31%

285-621 (906)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$32.53

Value

$34.88

PnL

+$2.35

Record

80%

558-142 (700)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.4

Value

$13.38

PnL

+$0.81

Record

54%

553-471 (1024)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$7.98

Value

$8.79

PnL

+$0.81

Record

43%

383-513 (896)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.86

Value

$6.18

PnL

+$0.32

Record

41%

688-988 (1676)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

$4.35

PnL

+$0.9

Record

48%

337-362 (699)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.