Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (85%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on November 11?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 16¢ · $307 held · ends Nov 11

Yes85¢No15¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$307.35

Combined PnL

$199.78

Research grade

AvoidNo at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 85%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$300.79

Total Shares318

Combined PnL+$210.07

No5 traders

Total Value$6.57

Total Shares39

Combined PnL-$10.29

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Yesavg 16.4¢	$57.38	$232.32	+$174.94	31% 285-621 (906)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 22.8¢	$10.24	$40.91	+$30.67	68% 2063-953 (3016)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 57.5¢	$23.09	$27.56	+$4.46	80% 558-142 (700)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 50.3¢	$16.26	$3.65	-$8.38	54% 553-471 (1024)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$1.52	$1.31	-$0.2	43% 383-513 (896)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 28.7¢	$2.59	$1.18	-$1.42	42% 370-503 (873)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$0.46	$0.26	-$0.2	48% 337-362 (699)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$0.25	$0.16	-$0.09	79% 375-99 (474)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$57.38

Value

$232.32

PnL

+$174.94

Record

31%

285-621 (906)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.24

Value

$40.91

PnL

+$30.67

Record

68%

2063-953 (3016)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.09

Value

$27.56

PnL

+$4.46

Record

80%

558-142 (700)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$16.26

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$8.38

Record

54%

553-471 (1024)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$1.52

Value

$1.31

PnL

-$0.2

Record

43%

383-513 (896)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$2.59

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$1.42

Record

42%

370-503 (873)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$0.2

Record

48%

337-362 (699)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.09

Record

79%

375-99 (474)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 85%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.2%

15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$481.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

581.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.