Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $408 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$408.32
$1.55
99.6¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KupaKeepKlan | Noavg 99.9¢ | $366.4 | $366.4 | +$0 | 100% 45-0 (45) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $43.31 | $27.45 | +$1.09 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $5.54 | $5.87 | +$0.33 | 80% 558-142 (700) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $4.96 | $5.08 | +$0.13 | 41% 688-988 (1676) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $3.5 | $3.51 | +$0.01 | 99% 268-2 (270) |
KupaKeepKlanInvested
$366.4
Value
$366.4
PnL
+$0
Record
100%
45-0 (45)
Invested
$43.31
Value
$27.45
PnL
+$1.09
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$5.54
Value
$5.87
PnL
+$0.33
Record
80%
558-142 (700)
Invested
$4.96
Value
$5.08
PnL
+$0.13
Record
41%
688-988 (1676)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.51
PnL
+$0.01
Record
99%
268-2 (270)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.