Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 33°C or higher on November 10?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $295 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$294.57
-$0.15
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KupaKeepKlan | Noavg 99.9¢ | $230.67 | $230.55 | -$0.12 | 100% 35-0 (35) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $38.3 | $38.28 | -$0.02 | 36% 516-906 (1422) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $13.09 | $13.08 | -$0.01 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $8.16 | $8.16 | -$0 | 79% 170-44 (214) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $4.5 | $4.5 | -$0 | 100% 94-0 (94) |
KupaKeepKlanInvested
$230.67
Value
$230.55
PnL
-$0.12
Record
100%
35-0 (35)
Invested
$38.3
Value
$38.28
PnL
-$0.02
Record
36%
516-906 (1422)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$13.09
Value
$13.08
PnL
-$0.01
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
Invested
$8.16
Value
$8.16
PnL
-$0
Record
79%
170-44 (214)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$0
Record
100%
94-0 (94)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.