Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on November 10?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 90¢ · $453 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$453.31
$39.42
80.2¢ → 89.5¢
+12% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 79.6¢ | $344.36 | $379.89 | +$35.53 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 83.1¢ | $33.74 | $36.53 | +$2.79 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 82.7¢ | $13.71 | $13.3 | -$0.41 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 85.1¢ | $11.14 | $11.79 | +$0.65 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $6.7 | $7.35 | +$0.65 | 80% 140-34 (174) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $4.25 | $4.45 | +$0.2 | 31% 163-361 (524) |
Invested
$344.36
Value
$379.89
PnL
+$35.53
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$33.74
Value
$36.53
PnL
+$2.79
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$13.71
Value
$13.3
PnL
-$0.41
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$11.14
Value
$11.79
PnL
+$0.65
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$6.7
Value
$7.35
PnL
+$0.65
Record
80%
140-34 (174)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$4.45
PnL
+$0.2
Record
31%
163-361 (524)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.