Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on November 10?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 92¢ · $404 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$404.49
$0.1
94.7¢ → 92.5¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 94.6¢ | $340.53 | $340.93 | +$0.4 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 95.1¢ | $36.48 | $36.31 | -$0.17 | 31% 163-361 (524) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $12.44 | $12.41 | -$0.03 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 95.1¢ | $7.77 | $7.74 | -$0.03 | 80% 140-34 (174) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $4.68 | $4.68 | +$0 | 35% 138-259 (397) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $2.5 | $2.44 | -$0.06 | 100% 93-0 (93) |
Invested
$340.53
Value
$340.93
PnL
+$0.4
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$36.48
Value
$36.31
PnL
-$0.17
Record
31%
163-361 (524)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$12.44
Value
$12.41
PnL
-$0.03
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$7.77
Value
$7.74
PnL
-$0.03
Record
80%
140-34 (174)
Invested
$4.68
Value
$4.68
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
138-259 (397)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.44
PnL
-$0.06
Record
100%
93-0 (93)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.