Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on November 10?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $499 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$498.94
$0.95
96.4¢ → 96.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $404.52 | $405.72 | +$1.2 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $37.15 | $37.04 | -$0.12 | 28% 153-400 (553) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $33.68 | $33.61 | -$0.07 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $12.69 | $12.65 | -$0.04 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $6.45 | $6.43 | -$0.02 | 80% 140-34 (174) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $3.5 | $3.49 | -$0.01 | 100% 93-0 (93) |
Invested
$404.52
Value
$405.72
PnL
+$1.2
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$37.15
Value
$37.04
PnL
-$0.12
Record
28%
153-400 (553)
Invested
$33.68
Value
$33.61
PnL
-$0.07
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$12.69
Value
$12.65
PnL
-$0.04
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$6.45
Value
$6.43
PnL
-$0.02
Record
80%
140-34 (174)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.49
PnL
-$0.01
Record
100%
93-0 (93)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.