Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 31?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 53¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$77.21

Smart Money Entry

59.9¢ → 53¢

-11% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$511.38

Total Shares1,044

Combined PnL-$114.6

Yes3 traders

Total Value$714.63

Total Shares1,401

Combined PnL+$191.81

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 59.9¢	$577.88	$472.22	-$105.33	21% 292-1070 (1362)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 33.2¢	$256.91	$394.41	+$137.51	51% 620-601 (1221)
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 42.2¢	$251.83	$304.57	+$52.74	50% 1737-1720 (3457)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 59.2¢	$99.54	$39.16	-$9.27	53% 6451-5652 (12103)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 45.9¢	$14.09	$15.65	+$1.56	59% 1708-1169 (2877)

Istaroth

Invested

$577.88

Value

$472.22

PnL

-$105.33

Record

21%

292-1070 (1362)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$256.91

Value

$394.41

PnL

+$137.51

Record

51%

620-601 (1221)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$251.83

Value

$304.57

PnL

+$52.74

Record

50%

1737-1720 (3457)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$99.54

Value

$39.16

PnL

-$9.27

Record

53%

6451-5652 (12103)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.09

Value

$15.65

PnL

+$1.56

Record

59%

1708-1169 (2877)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.