Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on October 31?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 45¢ · $584 held · ends Oct 31

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$584.2

Combined PnL

$58

Smart Money Entry

43.1¢ → 44.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$553.47

Total Shares1,244

Combined PnL+$56.65

No2 traders

Total Value$30.73

Total Shares56

Combined PnL+$1.35

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 43.5¢	$407.85	$463.41	+$55.56	51% 620-601 (1221)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$49.95	$54.23	+$4.28	21% 292-1070 (1362)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$39.01	$35.83	-$3.18	50% 1737-1720 (3457)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 56¢	$21.5	$16.43	-$0.64	57% 13416-10256 (23672)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 49.8¢	$12.96	$14.3	+$1.99	59% 1708-1169 (2877)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$407.85

Value

$463.41

PnL

+$55.56

Record

51%

620-601 (1221)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.95

Value

$54.23

PnL

+$4.28

Record

21%

292-1070 (1362)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.01

Value

$35.83

PnL

-$3.18

Record

50%

1737-1720 (3457)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$21.5

Value

$16.43

PnL

-$0.64

Record

57%

13416-10256 (23672)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$12.96

Value

$14.3

PnL

+$1.99

Record

59%

1708-1169 (2877)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.