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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 30?

Resolved No. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0

Combined PnL

-$28.7

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares232

Combined PnL-$28.7

No5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares0

Combined PnL+$0

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.7¢	$23.2	—	-$23.2	59% 1743-1208 (2951)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$5.24	—	-$5.5	56% 372-296 (668)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 80¢	—	—	+$0	50% 1774-1756 (3530)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Noavg 78.7¢	—	—	+$0	47% 647-728 (1375)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	—	—	+$0	53% 6481-5684 (12165)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	—	—	+$0	57% 13602-10422 (24024)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	—	—	+$0	32% 4404-9461 (13865)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	—	—	+$0	18% 526-2359 (2885)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 80.9¢	—	—	+$0	21% 300-1144 (1444)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$23.2

Value

—

PnL

-$23.2

Record

59%

1743-1208 (2951)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Invested

$5.24

Value

—

PnL

-$5.5

Record

56%

372-296 (668)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1774-1756 (3530)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

647-728 (1375)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

6481-5684 (12165)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

13602-10422 (24024)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

4404-9461 (13865)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

18%

526-2359 (2885)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

21%

300-1144 (1444)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa9c96d20...a17e0d

Slug

highest-temperature-in-busan-on-october-30-2026-22c

Traders in this Market

241532532432

Yes — $0

HellYeahTrader

Yes — $0

hello.67

No — $0

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

No — $0

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

No — $0

ghorrock

No — $0

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes — $0

LornaPredicts

Yes — $0

Istaroth

No — $0

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