Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on October 29?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 48¢ · $529 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
1 arb excluded
$529.23
$94
Research grade
NeutralYes at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 33.3¢ | $259.06 | $362.22 | +$103.16 | 51% 583-556 (1139) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $84.24 | $75.16 | -$9.08 | 53% 6316-5535 (11851) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 64.3¢ | $79.38 | $68.46 | -$4.52 | 27% 281-752 (1033) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64.3¢ | $44.01 | $36.62 | -$7.45 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 37.5¢ | $25.67 | $31.83 | +$2.93 | |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $13.05 | $17.48 | +$0.72 | 60% 1592-1042 (2634) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $6.71 | $5.92 | -$0.8 | 57% 13126-10007 (23133) |
Invested
$259.06
Value
$362.22
PnL
+$103.16
Record
51%
583-556 (1139)
Invested
$84.24
Value
$75.16
PnL
-$9.08
Record
53%
6316-5535 (11851)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$79.38
Value
$68.46
PnL
-$4.52
Record
27%
281-752 (1033)
Both legs:
Invested
$13.05
Value
$17.48
PnL
+$0.72
Record
60%
1592-1042 (2634)
Invested
$6.71
Value
$5.92
PnL
-$0.8
Record
57%
13126-10007 (23133)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.