Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 15°C on October 29?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 40¢ · $337 held · ends Oct 29

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$337.22

Combined PnL

$26.07

Smart Money Entry

35.6¢ → 39.5¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$232.63

Total Shares567

Combined PnL+$30.89

No2 traders

Total Value$104.59

Total Shares108

Combined PnL-$4.82

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 34.2¢	$149.82	$179.51	+$29.69	52% 561-524 (1085)
Istaroth	Noavg 66¢	$105	$100	-$4.58	32% 273-593 (866)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 38.2¢	$30.47	$32.67	+$2.19	61% 1529-967 (2496)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$21.45	$20.45	-$1	50% 1623-1615 (3238)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 62¢	$4.82	$4.58	-$0.23	57% 12909-9833 (22742)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$149.82

Value

$179.51

PnL

+$29.69

Record

52%

561-524 (1085)

Istaroth

Invested

$105

Value

$100

PnL

-$4.58

Record

32%

273-593 (866)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.47

Value

$32.67

PnL

+$2.19

Record

61%

1529-967 (2496)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.45

Value

$20.45

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

1623-1615 (3238)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.82

Value

$4.58

PnL

-$0.23

Record

57%

12909-9833 (22742)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.