Will the highest temperature in Busan be 14°C on October 29?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $178 held · ends Oct 29

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$178.22

Combined PnL

$3.37

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$103.28

Total Shares111

Combined PnL+$6.97

Yes3 traders

Total Value$74.94

Total Shares517

Combined PnL-$3.6

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85.5¢	$73.96	$48.9	+$4.16	57% 13272-10114 (23386)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 79.9¢	$41.37	$44.28	+$2.91	50% 1689-1672 (3361)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.7¢	$25.38	$38.03	+$12.64	60% 1636-1103 (2739)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.3¢	$52.21	$35.47	-$16.75	51% 600-573 (1173)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 80¢	$10.2	$10.1	-$0.1	24% 285-895 (1180)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.5¢	$0.95	$1.45	+$0.5	53% 6381-5587 (11968)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$73.96

Value

$48.9

PnL

+$4.16

Record

57%

13272-10114 (23386)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$41.37

Value

$44.28

PnL

+$2.91

Record

50%

1689-1672 (3361)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.38

Value

$38.03

PnL

+$12.64

Record

60%

1636-1103 (2739)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.21

Value

$35.47

PnL

-$16.75

Record

51%

600-573 (1173)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$10.2

Value

$10.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

24%

285-895 (1180)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.95

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

6381-5587 (11968)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.