Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on October 28?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 44¢ · $297 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$297.17
$12.44
42.3¢ → 44¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67CTR | Yesavg 40.7¢ | $191.88 | $207.21 | +$15.33 | 50% 1623-1615 (3238) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $64.05 | $58.76 | -$5.29 | 55% 217-181 (398) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 54.5¢ | $28.8 | $31.2 | +$2.4 | 61% 1529-967 (2496) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.