Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 10°C on November 7?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.0¢ · $63 held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$63.09
-$22.8
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $62.36 | $62.39 | +$0.03 | 97% 476-14 (490) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.62 | $0.62 | -$9.67 | 53% 4566-4056 (8622) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $91.82 | $0.05 | -$8.3 | 28% 3038-7860 (10898) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.03 | $0.03 | -$4.86 | 43% 10700-14195 (24895) |
Invested
$62.36
Value
$62.39
PnL
+$0.03
Record
97%
476-14 (490)
Invested
$0.62
Value
$0.62
PnL
-$9.67
Record
53%
4566-4056 (8622)
Invested
$91.82
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$8.3
Record
28%
3038-7860 (10898)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$4.86
Record
43%
10700-14195 (24895)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.