Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 13°C on November 6?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $55 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$55.47
-$22.94
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Mature
26h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.93 | $20.01 | +$0.08 | 52% 31016-29004 (60020) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $19.02 | $19.1 | +$0.08 | 53% 23789-20956 (44745) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $5.09 | $16.02 | +$0.04 | 58% 21353-15491 (36844) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $2.54 | $0.15 | -$2.39 | 19% 2910-12341 (15251) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $6.17 | $0.1 | -$17.85 | 38% 863-1426 (2289) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $1.89 | $0.07 | -$1.82 | 28% 2872-7382 (10254) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $1.09 | $0.01 | -$1.08 | 53% 12559-10942 (23501) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.93
Value
$20.01
PnL
+$0.08
Record
52%
31016-29004 (60020)
Invested
$19.02
Value
$19.1
PnL
+$0.08
Record
53%
23789-20956 (44745)
Invested
$5.09
Value
$16.02
PnL
+$0.04
Record
58%
21353-15491 (36844)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$2.54
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$2.39
Record
19%
2910-12341 (15251)
Invested
$6.17
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$17.85
Record
38%
863-1426 (2289)
Invested
$1.89
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$1.82
Record
28%
2872-7382 (10254)
Invested
$1.09
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.08
Record
53%
12559-10942 (23501)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.