Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on November 4?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.2¢ · $24 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$23.68
-$2.35
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $25.52 | $23.62 | -$1.89 | 79% 12035-3234 (15269) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.06 | $0.03 | -$0.02 | 47% 2072-2346 (4418) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.5¢ | $0.45 | $0.01 | -$0.44 | 20% 2524-10014 (12538) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.01 | $0.01 | -$0 | 55% 4354-3545 (7899) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$25.52
Value
$23.62
PnL
-$1.89
Record
79%
12035-3234 (15269)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.02
Record
47%
2072-2346 (4418)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.44
Record
20%
2524-10014 (12538)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
4354-3545 (7899)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.