Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on November 15?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $187 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$187.04

Combined PnL

$4.54

Smart Money Entry

90.7¢ → 99.6¢

+10% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$185.69

Total Shares191

Combined PnL+$12.28

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.35

Total Shares100

Combined PnL-$7.74

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 88¢	$74.8	$82.45	+$7.65	31% 1097-2456 (3553)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$38.26	$39.77	+$1.51	42% 754-1062 (1816)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 89.4¢	$29.42	$31.92	+$2.5	34% 329-653 (982)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 97¢	$11.64	$11.64	+$0	33% 80-164 (244)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91¢	$8.72	$9.29	+$0.57	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 97¢	$4.89	$4.89	+$0	58% 820-591 (1411)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$3.19	$3.23	+$0.04	51% 901-849 (1750)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$2.5	$2.5	-$0	98% 1504-23 (1527)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.09	$1.35	-$7.74	30% 251-582 (833)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$74.8

Value

$82.45

PnL

+$7.65

Record

31%

1097-2456 (3553)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$38.26

Value

$39.77

PnL

+$1.51

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.42

Value

$31.92

PnL

+$2.5

Record

34%

329-653 (982)

123987456<$100

Invested

$11.64

Value

$11.64

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

80-164 (244)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.72

Value

$9.29

PnL

+$0.57

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.89

Value

$4.89

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

820-591 (1411)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.19

Value

$3.23

PnL

+$0.04

Record

51%

901-849 (1750)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0

Record

98%

1504-23 (1527)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.09

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$7.74

Record

30%

251-582 (833)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.