Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on November 15?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 97¢ · $260 held · ends Nov 15

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$260.32

Combined PnL

-$7.86

Smart Money Entry

83.3¢ → 97.2¢

+17% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$250.08

Total Shares264

Combined PnL+$13.33

Yes4 traders

Total Value$10.21

Total Shares182

Combined PnL-$21.19

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96.6¢	$254.67	$137.63	-$19.96	42% 754-1062 (1816)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 59¢	$50.15	$82.45	+$32.3	38% 306-501 (807)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$21.31	$18.53	-$0.39	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$17.13	$6.85	-$8.54	30% 251-582 (833)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 81¢	$4.08	$4.89	+$0.81	51% 818-797 (1615)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 81¢	$3.07	$3.68	+$0.61	47% 852-950 (1802)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 98¢	$2.93	$2.9	-$0.03	59% 827-567 (1394)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$14.16	$2.66	-$11.51	40% 46-69 (115)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.75	$0.38	-$0.38	71% 917-377 (1294)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.9¢	$1.1	$0.33	-$0.77	57% 800-608 (1408)

241532532432

Invested

$254.67

Value

$137.63

PnL

-$19.96

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$50.15

Value

$82.45

PnL

+$32.3

Record

38%

306-501 (807)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$21.31

Value

$18.53

PnL

-$0.39

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.13

Value

$6.85

PnL

-$8.54

Record

30%

251-582 (833)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.08

Value

$4.89

PnL

+$0.81

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.07

Value

$3.68

PnL

+$0.61

Record

47%

852-950 (1802)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.93

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$0.03

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.16

Value

$2.66

PnL

-$11.51

Record

40%

46-69 (115)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$0.38

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$0.77

Record

57%

800-608 (1408)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.