Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on November 15?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 80¢ · $221 held · ends Nov 15

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$220.91

Combined PnL

$20.87

Smart Money Entry

70.5¢ → 79.5¢

+13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$89.11

Total Shares234

Combined PnL+$32.56

No7 traders

Total Value$131.8

Total Shares191

Combined PnL-$11.69

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.5¢	$82.26	$84.72	+$8.5	42% 754-1062 (1816)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 68¢	$57.8	$52.7	-$5.1	42% 1670-2304 (3974)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 68¢	$22.38	$20.4	-$1.97	38% 306-500 (806)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.3¢	$23.37	$20.23	-$1.84	53% 2078-1852 (3930)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 81¢	$19.94	$16.49	-$3.46	71% 917-377 (1294)
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 65¢	$15.82	$15.09	-$0.73	40% 46-69 (115)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$89.27	$4.39	+$24.05	30% 250-582 (832)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 62¢	$3.12	$3.93	+$0.81	52% 865-790 (1655)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 62¢	$2.35	$2.96	+$0.61	49% 877-897 (1774)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.26

Value

$84.72

PnL

+$8.5

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$57.8

Value

$52.7

PnL

-$5.1

Record

42%

1670-2304 (3974)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$22.38

Value

$20.4

PnL

-$1.97

Record

38%

306-500 (806)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$23.37

Value

$20.23

PnL

-$1.84

Record

53%

2078-1852 (3930)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$16.49

PnL

-$3.46

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$15.82

Value

$15.09

PnL

-$0.73

Record

40%

46-69 (115)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.27

Value

$4.39

PnL

+$24.05

Record

30%

250-582 (832)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.12

Value

$3.93

PnL

+$0.81

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.96

PnL

+$0.61

Record

49%

877-897 (1774)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.