Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on November 15?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 54¢ · $198 held · ends Nov 15

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$197.59

Combined PnL

-$63.66

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 54¢

-27% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$144.42

Total Shares266

Combined PnL-$78.98

Yes2 traders

Total Value$53.16

Total Shares107

Combined PnL+$15.32

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 83.4¢	$151.85	$50.96	-$48.71	30% 251-582 (833)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$30.84	$44.77	+$13.93	42% 754-1062 (1816)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 62.8¢	$43.53	$42.44	-$1.09	71% 917-377 (1294)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100	Noavg 75.2¢	$23.4	$14	-$9.4	68% 89-42 (131)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 62.4¢	$42.57	$13.43	-$9.42	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 51.8¢	$12.95	$11.25	-$1.7	65% 4350-2373 (6723)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 85¢	$17	$9	-$8	53% 7340-6426 (13766)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$7	$8.38	+$1.39	51% 818-797 (1615)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 66¢	$2.5	$1.71	-$0.8	47% 852-950 (1802)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 50¢	$1.5	$1.63	+$0.13	57% 800-608 (1408)

Haradwaith

Invested

$151.85

Value

$50.96

PnL

-$48.71

Record

30%

251-582 (833)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.84

Value

$44.77

PnL

+$13.93

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$43.53

Value

$42.44

PnL

-$1.09

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100

Invested

$23.4

Value

$14

PnL

-$9.4

Record

68%

89-42 (131)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$42.57

Value

$13.43

PnL

-$9.42

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$12.95

Value

$11.25

PnL

-$1.7

Record

65%

4350-2373 (6723)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17

Value

PnL

-$8

Record

53%

7340-6426 (13766)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$8.38

PnL

+$1.39

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$0.8

Record

47%

852-950 (1802)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$0.13

Record

57%

800-608 (1408)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.