Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on November 15?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 57¢ · $215 held · ends Nov 15

Yes43¢No57¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$215.45

Combined PnL

-$18.8

Smart Money Entry

88.4¢ → 57.4¢

-35% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$207.8

Total Shares244

Combined PnL-$24.54

Yes1 trader

Total Value$7.65

Total Shares85

Combined PnL+$5.74

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$84.71	$77.35	-$7.36	36% 286-506 (792)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 76.9¢	$74.4	$68.45	-$5.95	71% 919-377 (1296)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$32.81	$29.95	-$2.86	30% 1153-2701 (3854)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79.3¢	$55.19	$16.94	-$8.25	52% 2195-1999 (4194)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$16.98	$7.65	+$5.74	42% 760-1068 (1828)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 91.1¢	$6.25	$5.59	-$0.66	47% 1212-1371 (2583)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 91.1¢	$3.45	$3.45	-$0	57% 812-615 (1427)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 59.3¢	$2.97	$3.36	+$0.4	24% 762-2435 (3197)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$2.56	$2.72	+$0.16	49% 828-850 (1678)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$84.71

Value

$77.35

PnL

-$7.36

Record

36%

286-506 (792)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$74.4

Value

$68.45

PnL

-$5.95

Record

71%

919-377 (1296)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$32.81

Value

$29.95

PnL

-$2.86

Record

30%

1153-2701 (3854)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$55.19

Value

$16.94

PnL

-$8.25

Record

52%

2195-1999 (4194)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.98

Value

$7.65

PnL

+$5.74

Record

42%

760-1068 (1828)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$6.25

Value

$5.59

PnL

-$0.66

Record

47%

1212-1371 (2583)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

812-615 (1427)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$2.97

Value

$3.36

PnL

+$0.4

Record

24%

762-2435 (3197)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$2.56

Value

$2.72

PnL

+$0.16

Record

49%

828-850 (1678)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.6%

57.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.