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No
balthazarCTR<$100YesYes
HaradwaithCTR<$100Yes
LucerysCTR<$100YesYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 15°C or below on November 15?
Resolved No. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 67%
Total Value
$100
Combined PnL
-$24.96
Smart Money Signal
Yes
6 of 7 top traders (86%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$100
Total Shares100
Combined PnL+$0.1
Yes6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares45
Combined PnL-$25.06
No — 14%Yes — 86%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.9 | $100 | +$0.1 | 99% 1609-24 (1633) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.72 | — | -$2.72 | 42% 5212-7125 (12337) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.36 | — | -$1.36 | 24% 788-2560 (3348) |
HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.09 | — | -$8.99 | 29% 308-740 (1048) |
LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.94 | — | -$0.93 | 35% 3905-7251 (11156) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | — | -$0.45 | 36% 1626-2854 (4480) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $10.72 | — | -$10.6 | 36% 332-601 (933) |
1D
1DVSBSTDInvested
$99.9
Value
$100
PnL
+$0.1
Record
99%
1609-24 (1633)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.72
Value
—
PnL
-$2.72
Record
42%
5212-7125 (12337)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$1.36
Value
—
PnL
-$1.36
Record
24%
788-2560 (3348)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$9.09
Value
—
PnL
-$8.99
Record
29%
308-740 (1048)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$0.94
Value
—
PnL
-$0.93
Record
35%
3905-7251 (11156)
AN
anothercoinCTR<$100Invested
$0.45
Value
—
PnL
-$0.45
Record
36%
1626-2854 (4480)
SM
smallreceiptCTR<$100Invested
$10.72
Value
—
PnL
-$10.6
Record
36%
332-601 (933)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xf2173347...4909f7
Slug
highest-temperature-in-busan-on-november-15-2026-15corbelow