Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on November 14?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $364 held · ends Nov 14

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$363.76

Combined PnL

$35.66

Smart Money Entry

82.2¢ → 97.5¢

+19% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$359.2

Total Shares367

Combined PnL+$55.77

Yes3 traders

Total Value$4.57

Total Shares95

Combined PnL-$20.11

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 76¢	$189.08	$243.26	+$54.18	55% 1088-874 (1962)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$45.77	$38.14	+$0.37	40% 620-939 (1559)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 91¢	$18.05	$19.39	+$1.35	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98¢	$14.21	$14.17	-$0.04	29% 62-155 (217)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98¢	$13.44	$13.39	-$0.05	58% 699-503 (1202)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98¢	$12.3	$12.26	-$0.04	99% 1195-12 (1207)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$8.72	$8.75	+$0.03	39% 216-342 (558)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98¢	$4.97	$4.95	-$0.02	48% 757-814 (1571)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98¢	$4.9	$4.89	-$0.01	51% 742-710 (1452)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.3¢	$18.4	$3.03	-$15.37	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.8¢	$8.47	$1.33	-$4.24	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$0.7	$0.2	-$0.5	13% 76-495 (571)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$189.08

Value

$243.26

PnL

+$54.18

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$45.77

Value

$38.14

PnL

+$0.37

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.05

Value

$19.39

PnL

+$1.35

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

123987456<$100

Invested

$14.21

Value

$14.17

PnL

-$0.04

Record

29%

62-155 (217)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$13.44

Value

$13.39

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$12.3

Value

$12.26

PnL

-$0.04

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$8.72

Value

$8.75

PnL

+$0.03

Record

39%

216-342 (558)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.97

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.89

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.4

Value

$3.03

PnL

-$15.37

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.47

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$4.24

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.5

Record

13%

76-495 (571)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.