Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on November 14?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 90¢ · $475 held · ends Nov 14

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$474.7

Combined PnL

$93.23

Smart Money Entry

63.8¢ → 89.5¢

+40% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$455.55

Total Shares531

Combined PnL+$116.85

Yes2 traders

Total Value$19.15

Total Shares122

Combined PnL-$23.62

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 61.3¢	$245.83	$345.05	+$99.22	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 69.1¢	$56	$69.26	+$13.25	40% 620-939 (1559)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 62¢	$12.29	$17.05	+$4.76	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$39.57	$16.25	-$23.32	31% 146-327 (473)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 84¢	$8.4	$8.55	+$0.15	39% 216-342 (558)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$8.74	$8.28	-$0.46	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 86¢	$4.3	$4.28	-$0.02	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 87¢	$3.14	$3.09	-$0.05	63% 714-428 (1142)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$3.2	$2.9	-$0.3	13% 76-495 (571)

hello.67

Invested

$245.83

Value

$345.05

PnL

+$99.22

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$56

Value

$69.26

PnL

+$13.25

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$12.29

Value

$17.05

PnL

+$4.76

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.57

Value

$16.25

PnL

-$23.32

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.55

PnL

+$0.15

Record

39%

216-342 (558)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$8.74

Value

$8.28

PnL

-$0.46

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.28

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$3.14

Value

$3.09

PnL

-$0.05

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.2

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$0.3

Record

13%

76-495 (571)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.