Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 1 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 15°C on November 14?

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (10%) · Yes at 34¢ · $292 held · ends Nov 14

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 10%

Total Value

$291.91

Combined PnL

$49.01

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 10 top traders (10%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$172.35

Total Shares383

Combined PnL+$67.77

No9 traders

Total Value$119.56

Total Shares190

Combined PnL-$18.76

Yes — 10%No — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 27.3¢	$104.58	$172.35	+$67.77	55% 1088-874 (1962)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 69.3¢	$94.11	$64.64	-$18.35	40% 620-939 (1559)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 59¢	$11.7	$10.51	-$1.19	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 60.3¢	$10.63	$10.4	-$0.23	72% 823-323 (1146)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 62.5¢	$6.3	$7.01	+$0.71	63% 714-428 (1142)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 64¢	$6.53	$6.48	-$0.05	48% 757-814 (1571)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 68¢	$7.74	$6	+$0.48	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 65.7¢	$5.67	$6	+$0.32	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 53¢	$5.3	$5.3	+$0	39% 216-342 (558)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 72.4¢	$3.67	$3.22	-$0.45	50% 697-689 (1386)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$104.58

Value

$172.35

PnL

+$67.77

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$94.11

Value

$64.64

PnL

-$18.35

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$11.7

Value

$10.51

PnL

-$1.19

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$10.63

Value

$10.4

PnL

-$0.23

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$6.3

Value

$7.01

PnL

+$0.71

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$6.53

Value

$6.48

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.74

Value

PnL

+$0.48

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.67

Value

PnL

+$0.32

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$5.3

Value

$5.3

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

216-342 (558)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.67

Value

$3.22

PnL

-$0.45

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 10 top traders (10%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.