Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 12 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 14°C on November 14?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 45¢ · $213 held · ends Nov 14

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$213.06

Combined PnL

$15.95

Smart Money Entry

75.6¢ → 45.4¢

-40% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$139.06

Total Shares227

Combined PnL-$33.51

Yes2 traders

Total Value$74

Total Shares226

Combined PnL+$49.46

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HaradwaithCTR	Noavg 89.6¢	$107.51	$68.03	-$25.8	31% 146-327 (473)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 10.3¢	$19.58	$62.16	+$42.58	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 91.6¢	$20.43	$15.19	-$5.24	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 92.3¢	$18.3	$13.5	-$4.8	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 52.8¢	$53.47	$13.38	+$3.28	72% 823-323 (1146)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 13.7¢	$4.96	$11.83	+$6.88	40% 620-939 (1559)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 65¢	$6.5	$6.81	+$0.31	39% 216-342 (558)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 44.3¢	$4.54	$4.64	+$0.1	50% 697-689 (1386)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$4.91	$4.54	-$0.37	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$4.84	$4.37	-$0.48	63% 714-428 (1142)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$2.49	$2.35	-$0.14	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$2.47	$2.33	-$0.14	58% 679-500 (1179)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$2.42	$2.28	-$0.14	48% 757-814 (1571)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 48.2¢	$1.74	$1.64	-$0.1	49% 731-768 (1499)

HaradwaithCTR

Invested

$107.51

Value

$68.03

PnL

-$25.8

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.58

Value

$62.16

PnL

+$42.58

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$20.43

Value

$15.19

PnL

-$5.24

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$18.3

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$4.8

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$53.47

Value

$13.38

PnL

+$3.28

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.96

Value

$11.83

PnL

+$6.88

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$6.5

Value

$6.81

PnL

+$0.31

Record

39%

216-342 (558)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$4.54

Value

$4.64

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$4.91

Value

$4.54

PnL

-$0.37

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$4.84

Value

$4.37

PnL

-$0.48

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$2.49

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.14

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$2.47

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.14

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$2.42

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$0.14

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$1.74

Value

$1.64

PnL

-$0.1

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.6%

45.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$110.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

210.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.