Will the highest temperature in Busan be 13°C on November 14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $83 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$83.4

Combined PnL

$0.92

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$83.09

Total Shares83

Combined PnL+$4.83

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.31

Total Shares314

Combined PnL-$3.91

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 93.4¢	$18.68	$19.98	+$1.3	40% 625-948 (1573)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$19.25	$19.81	+$0.56	53% 6922-6099 (13021)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.5¢	$74.24	$15.83	+$1.45	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$13.77	$14.93	+$1.15	72% 829-328 (1157)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$9.66	$9.99	+$0.33	39% 220-343 (563)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98¢	$2.5	$2.55	+$0.05	99% 1213-13 (1226)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$1.18	$0.24	-$0.94	13% 77-499 (576)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.05	$0.05	+$0	3% 8-268 (276)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3	$0.03	-$2.97	63% 716-429 (1145)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$18.68

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$1.3

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.25

Value

$19.81

PnL

+$0.56

Record

53%

6922-6099 (13021)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$74.24

Value

$15.83

PnL

+$1.45

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$13.77

Value

$14.93

PnL

+$1.15

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$9.66

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.33

Record

39%

220-343 (563)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

99%

1213-13 (1226)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.18

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$0.94

Record

13%

77-499 (576)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0

Record

8-268 (276)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.97

Record

63%

716-429 (1145)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.