Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on November 13?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 85¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$265.54

Smart Money Entry

69.1¢ → 84.5¢

+22% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,719

Combined PnL+$272

Yes3 traders

Total Value$10.07

Total Shares67

Combined PnL-$6.47

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 70.9¢	$793.21	$896.46	+$151.16	63% 2135-1236 (3371)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 64.8¢	$396.24	$519.88	+$123.64	58% 1038-742 (1780)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 85¢	$17	$17	+$0	53% 6071-5438 (11509)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 85¢	$13.76	$13.76	+$0	47% 4818-5478 (10296)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 83¢	$15.37	$12.57	-$2.8	53% 905-797 (1702)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.1¢	$8.42	$4.84	-$3.58	12% 36-262 (298)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 85¢	$4.4	$4.4	+$0	42% 827-1152 (1979)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$5.75	$3.75	-$2	35% 407-742 (1149)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$2.36	$1.48	-$0.89	76% 662-214 (876)

hello.67

Invested

$793.21

Value

$896.46

PnL

+$151.16

Record

63%

2135-1236 (3371)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$396.24

Value

$519.88

PnL

+$123.64

Record

58%

1038-742 (1780)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17

Value

$17

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

6071-5438 (11509)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$13.76

Value

$13.76

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

4818-5478 (10296)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$15.37

Value

$12.57

PnL

-$2.8

Record

53%

905-797 (1702)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.42

Value

$4.84

PnL

-$3.58

Record

12%

36-262 (298)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

827-1152 (1979)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.75

Value

$3.75

PnL

-$2

Record

35%

407-742 (1149)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.36

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$0.89

Record

76%

662-214 (876)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.