Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on November 13?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 46¢ · $220 held · ends Nov 13

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$220.11

Combined PnL

$9.69

Smart Money Entry

43.7¢ → 46¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$197.18

Total Shares430

Combined PnL+$9.11

No4 traders

Total Value$22.94

Total Shares46

Combined PnL+$0.58

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 42.6¢	$81.85	$88.44	+$6.59	58% 1038-742 (1780)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 45.3¢	$63.85	$64.16	+$0.31	35% 407-742 (1149)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 43.7¢	$39.72	$41.82	+$2.1	63% 2135-1236 (3371)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 49¢	$7.93	$8.09	+$0.16	47% 4818-5478 (10296)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 49¢	$6.75	$6.89	+$0.14	53% 6071-5438 (11509)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 47.4¢	$5.09	$5.36	+$0.28	53% 905-797 (1702)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$2.64	$2.76	+$0.12	76% 662-214 (876)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 50¢	$2.59	$2.59	+$0	48% 481-525 (1006)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.85

Value

$88.44

PnL

+$6.59

Record

58%

1038-742 (1780)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.85

Value

$64.16

PnL

+$0.31

Record

35%

407-742 (1149)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.72

Value

$41.82

PnL

+$2.1

Record

63%

2135-1236 (3371)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$7.93

Value

$8.09

PnL

+$0.16

Record

47%

4818-5478 (10296)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$6.75

Value

$6.89

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

6071-5438 (11509)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.09

Value

$5.36

PnL

+$0.28

Record

53%

905-797 (1702)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.76

PnL

+$0.12

Record

76%

662-214 (876)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$2.59

Value

$2.59

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

481-525 (1006)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.