Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on November 13?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 71¢ · $293 held · ends Nov 13

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$292.76

Combined PnL

$66.26

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 70.5¢

-4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$172.47

Total Shares521

Combined PnL+$70.36

No7 traders

Total Value$120.29

Total Shares169

Combined PnL-$4.09

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.5¢	$53.8	$91.22	+$37.42	63% 2135-1236 (3371)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.6¢	$46.31	$74.25	+$27.94	35% 407-742 (1149)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 80.1¢	$45.15	$35.08	-$4.48	53% 905-797 (1702)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 75¢	$31.15	$32.11	+$0.96	76% 662-214 (876)
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 69¢	$25.27	$24.54	-$0.73	32% 19-41 (60)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 70¢	$14	$13.4	-$0.6	53% 6071-5438 (11509)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 62¢	$10.04	$10.85	+$0.81	47% 4818-5478 (10296)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$2	$7	+$5	12% 36-262 (298)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 68¢	$3.52	$3.47	-$0.05	47% 533-613 (1146)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 67¢	$0.84	$0.84	+$0	48% 498-549 (1047)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.8

Value

$91.22

PnL

+$37.42

Record

63%

2135-1236 (3371)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.31

Value

$74.25

PnL

+$27.94

Record

35%

407-742 (1149)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$45.15

Value

$35.08

PnL

-$4.48

Record

53%

905-797 (1702)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$31.15

Value

$32.11

PnL

+$0.96

Record

76%

662-214 (876)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$25.27

Value

$24.54

PnL

-$0.73

Record

32%

19-41 (60)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$14

Value

$13.4

PnL

-$0.6

Record

53%

6071-5438 (11509)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$10.04

Value

$10.85

PnL

+$0.81

Record

47%

4818-5478 (10296)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$5

Record

12%

36-262 (298)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.52

Value

$3.47

PnL

-$0.05

Record

47%

533-613 (1146)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$0.84

Value

$0.84

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

498-549 (1047)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.