Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $157 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$157.07
-$1.27
99¢ → 98¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $64.38 | $63.7 | -$0.68 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $29.79 | $29.52 | -$0.27 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $29.52 | $29.4 | -$0.12 | 26% 898-2508 (3406) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.68 | -$0.28 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $14.7 | $14.77 | +$0.07 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$64.38
Value
$63.7
PnL
-$0.68
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$29.79
Value
$29.52
PnL
-$0.27
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
Invested
$29.52
Value
$29.4
PnL
-$0.12
Record
26%
898-2508 (3406)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.68
PnL
-$0.28
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
Invested
$14.7
Value
$14.77
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.