Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on November 12?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 88¢ · $158 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$158.12
-$1.66
89.5¢ → 87.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 88.4¢ | $92.85 | $91.88 | -$0.97 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $27 | $26.25 | -$0.75 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $19 | $18 | -$1 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.2¢ | $11.06 | $11.76 | +$0.7 | 31% 285-621 (906) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $9.17 | $9.01 | -$0.15 | 48% 337-362 (699) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.5¢ | $2.3 | $1.22 | +$0.52 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$92.85
Value
$91.88
PnL
-$0.97
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$27
Value
$26.25
PnL
-$0.75
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$19
Value
$18
PnL
-$1
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$11.06
Value
$11.76
PnL
+$0.7
Record
31%
285-621 (906)
Invested
$9.17
Value
$9.01
PnL
-$0.15
Record
48%
337-362 (699)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$1.22
PnL
+$0.52
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.