Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on November 12?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 46¢ · $308 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$308.38
-$10.56
Research grade
NeutralNo at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100 | Yesavg 44.7¢ | $270.39 | $247.52 | +$29.3 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 44.7¢ | $162.27 | $197.67 | +$35.41 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 51.9¢ | $56.86 | $49.85 | -$6.11 | |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $23.85 | $20.48 | -$3.38 | 35% 2930-5331 (8261) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $22 | $18.2 | -$3.8 | 52% 5344-4847 (10191) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $15.6 | $13.65 | -$1.95 | 29% 2470-6157 (8627) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 53.1¢ | $9.97 | $8.53 | -$1.43 | 50% 274-269 (543) |
Invested
$270.39
Value
$247.52
PnL
+$29.3
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Both legs:
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$23.85
Value
$20.48
PnL
-$3.38
Record
35%
2930-5331 (8261)
Invested
$22
Value
$18.2
PnL
-$3.8
Record
52%
5344-4847 (10191)
Invested
$15.6
Value
$13.65
PnL
-$1.95
Record
29%
2470-6157 (8627)
Invested
$9.97
Value
$8.53
PnL
-$1.43
Record
50%
274-269 (543)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.