Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 67¢ · $176 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$175.99
$10.99
64.4¢ → 66.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.1¢ | $60.4 | $67.17 | +$6.77 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 64.5¢ | $41.9 | $43.23 | +$1.33 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $19.2 | $20.4 | +$1.2 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $20.7 | $19.95 | -$0.75 | 7% 26-370 (396) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $10.8 | $13.6 | +$2.8 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 68.5¢ | $12 | $11.65 | -$0.35 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
Invested
$60.4
Value
$67.17
PnL
+$6.77
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$41.9
Value
$43.23
PnL
+$1.33
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$19.2
Value
$20.4
PnL
+$1.2
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
Invested
$20.7
Value
$19.95
PnL
-$0.75
Record
7%
26-370 (396)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$13.6
PnL
+$2.8
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
Invested
$12
Value
$11.65
PnL
-$0.35
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.