Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $174 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$174.13
$1.67
95.8¢ → 96.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $62.35 | $62.73 | +$0.38 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $33.6 | $33.95 | +$0.35 | 28% 209-544 (753) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $28.8 | $29.1 | +$0.3 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $29.1 | $28.95 | -$0.15 | 40% 1412-2154 (3566) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $18.6 | $19.4 | +$0.8 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$62.35
Value
$62.73
PnL
+$0.38
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$33.6
Value
$33.95
PnL
+$0.35
Record
28%
209-544 (753)
Invested
$28.8
Value
$29.1
PnL
+$0.3
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
Invested
$29.1
Value
$28.95
PnL
-$0.15
Record
40%
1412-2154 (3566)
Invested
$18.6
Value
$19.4
PnL
+$0.8
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.