Will the highest temperature in Busan be 15°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $214 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$214.35
$0.03
99.7¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.7¢ | $104.64 | $104.68 | +$0.04 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.91 | -$0.03 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.91 | -$0 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.91 | -$0 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $19.92 | $19.94 | +$0.02 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
LucerysInvested
$104.64
Value
$104.68
PnL
+$0.04
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.91
PnL
-$0.03
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.91
PnL
-$0
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.91
PnL
-$0
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Invested
$19.92
Value
$19.94
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.