Will the highest temperature in Busan be 14°C on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $233 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$233.45
-$0.02
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $84.91 | $84.91 | +$0 | 38% 3372-5405 (8777) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $83.42 | $83.42 | -$0 | 99% 372-2 (374) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | -$0 | 32% 2879-6243 (9122) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | -$0 | 29% 887-2138 (3025) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.07 | $5.07 | +$0 | 47% 483-555 (1038) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.12 | $0.1 | -$0.02 | 51% 4764-4566 (9330) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$84.91
Value
$84.91
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
3372-5405 (8777)
Invested
$83.42
Value
$83.42
PnL
-$0
Record
99%
372-2 (374)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
-$0
Record
32%
2879-6243 (9122)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
-$0
Record
29%
887-2138 (3025)
Invested
$5.07
Value
$5.07
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
483-555 (1038)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.12
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$0.02
Record
51%
4764-4566 (9330)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.