Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 11°C or below on November 12?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $120 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$120.2
-$24.92
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.9 | $99.95 | +$0.05 | 99% 570-5 (575) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.99 | +$0.01 | 53% 5995-5369 (11364) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $8.45 | $0.09 | -$8.36 | 48% 477-508 (985) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $37.46 | $0.08 | -$10.11 | 37% 3428-5859 (9287) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $2.81 | $0.06 | -$2.75 | 27% 943-2537 (3480) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.06 | $0.01 | -$1.05 | 36% 506-908 (1414) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.73 | $0.01 | -$2.71 | 30% 2929-6854 (9783) |
Invested
$99.9
Value
$99.95
PnL
+$0.05
Record
99%
570-5 (575)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
5995-5369 (11364)
Invested
$8.45
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$8.36
Record
48%
477-508 (985)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$37.46
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$10.11
Record
37%
3428-5859 (9287)
Invested
$2.81
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$2.75
Record
27%
943-2537 (3480)
Invested
$1.06
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.05
Record
36%
506-908 (1414)
Invested
$2.73
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.71
Record
30%
2929-6854 (9783)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.